On April 16, 2020, Carolina Panther’s Running Back Christian McCaffrey signed an NFL extension that would flip the NFL world on its head.
The jack of all trades master of all-back just became the highest-paid running back in NFL history (yearly).
The former Stanford running back just signed a 4-year contract worth $64,063,500. McCaffrey is due $22,325,000 in 2020 ($21,500,000 signing bonus (Spotrac.com).
It’s no shock that McCaffrey has received such a large contract. In 2019, Christian McCaffrey ran for 1,387 yards with 15 TDS and caught the football for 1005 yards and 4 TDS. As a result of such an amazing season, McCaffrey was nominated all pro and awarded a gargantuan contract.
Still, questions have emerged surrounding the back such as, “Will he live up to his contract?” And “Does he deserve such a contract over Derrick Henry?” Let’s get into the former.
Asking if Christian McCaffrey will live up to his contract is a matter of perspective.
Do you believe that he will have 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards a year?
Or do you believe that he’ll be used like a scalpel and not a hammer?
In the former, I’ll say no, Christian McCaffrey will not live up to his contract.
McCaffrey, at 5’11, 206 pounds, would not be able to sustain the yearly beatings with his small frame, NFL coordinators have him as enemy number 1, and there could be overuse implications.
McCaffrey would feel the implications of repeated abuse added his small size.
One might argue that McCaffrey is only 24 but, in the NFL, the more beatings the body takes the less the back will stick around.
One could point to smaller backs such a Barry Sanders, or Emmit Smith when arguing running back height or the fact that he’s had only a minor shoulder injury as a rookie and a minor hip injury in college.
I would counter by saying that the days of running backs staying in the league 10 years are slim and that backs today in the NFL face bigger and stronger defensive lineman than the backs of yon.
Players are crashing into each other faster and defensive linemen are still just as heavy.
McCaffrey will most certainly succumb to injury if is usage goes up.
Fans aren’t the only ones who were enamored by McCaffrey’s speed and shiftiness. Defensive coordinators were stockpiling data of the back looking for ways to limit his production in their future meetings.
For example, on December 29, 2019, the New Orleans Saints (13,3) played against the Carolina Panthers (5,11). This was the worst game for the big earning running back. The Saints offense sliced and diced the Panthers’ defense. This kept McCaffrey off the field.
The Saints’ defense overwhelmed Grier, shut down cut back lanes for McCaffrey, and Kyle Allen looked pedestrian. If teams can find a way to limit McCaffrey in a way to disrupt his confidence and play, they have a good chance at beating the Panthers.
• Running Backs like Le’Veon Bell have had 300 plus rush attempts and over 100 passing targets.
• Bell, in his 6 active NFL years, has had the following injuries: Pedal Sprain, Concussion, ACL pull, MCL tear, Groin sports hernia.
• Over usage will definitely help McCaffrey enter injury territory.
In the latter, yes, Christian McCaffrey will live up to his contract. In that, if the Panthers use McCaffrey as the tip of the spear instead of a blunt object then he could outperform his contract.
By using McCaffrey as the X factor: getting him into open space or setting a production goal, the Panthers take McCaffrey for a steal.
Setting a production goal allows the Panthers to ramp up and ramp down Christian McCaffrey as they see fit. If he gets two touchdowns in a game, ramp him down; if he gets 100 yards, ramp him up.
By having a production goal, it allows the Panthers the ability to control and preserve his output as they see fit. It’s no longer about McCaffrey getting 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving; he’s shown that he’s capable of that.
It is now about being the tip of the spear, not a blunt object.
Does McCaffrey deserve a higher contract than Derrick Henry? The short answer is yes but allow me to explain. As Derrick Henry bulldozes his way through defensive lines, he gains additional wear and tear.
Christian McCaffrey can be flexed out to the slot and becomes a wide receiver with a running back mentality. This also alleviates the wear of running behind an offensive line and crashing through defensive lineman.
This makes McCaffrey that more valuable.
It now, however, comes down to negations for Derrick Henry contract wise.
What this means for the NFL is that running backs like Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and Derrick Henry will all be looking for big paydays as well.
The folks at Spotrac.com (sport’s salaries and contracts) have calculated Alvin Kamara’s market value to be $14.9 million (4yr, $57,666,668). They arrived at this number using variables such as games played, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, fumbles, receptions, receiving yard, and ratings. I don’t totally disagree with that.
I believe the Saints would definitely do much more to insulate themselves. Perhaps make some of his contract incentives based.
Dalvin Cook’s market value had been calculated to 12.3 million over 5 years ($61,635,370). I think Dalvin would definitely look for more of that money to be guaranteed and that his previous knee injury may have hurt his chances of scoring on a bigger contract.
Derrick Henry is rated at $13,852,875 for a 4-year $55,411,500 contract. I want to say that Henry will have a bit more per year myself. Ryan Tannehill is now garnering a $29 million per contract so it will be interesting to see how it all shakes.
In sum, the top backs should be on track for higher paydays and the rise (again) of the multidimensional running back is on its way.
What do you say? Do you agree with Christian McCaffery’s new contract? Do you think other backs deserve more?
Let me know in the comments below.
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